iPhone production just went up by 4 million units, and Samsung is the biggest beneficiary

Apple is ramping up iPhone and iPad production for the second quarter of 2025, and it looks like tariffs are at the center of that decision. According to a new report from Morgan Stanley, Apple has revised its Q2 manufacturing forecast, raising iPhone output from 41 million to 45 million units. iPad production is also getting a bump, going from 11.5 million to 13 million. That’s a 15 percent and 24 percent increase year-over-year, respectively.

The timing of this uptick is closely tied to ongoing tariff uncertainty. With the U.S. and China locked in a tense trade standoff, and the Trump administration signaling changes to tariff policies, Apple appears to be hedging its bets by building up inventory ahead of any sudden cost spikes. While mobile phones and certain tech components have temporarily been excluded from U.S. tariffs, the policy changes have been anything but consistent, pushing Apple to take precautionary steps now rather than wait.

Apple’s production strategy also highlights its efforts to diversify its manufacturing base. While China and Vietnam remain key hubs, both countries are facing potential tariff hikes of up to 145 and 46 percent, respectively. That’s a big risk for Apple, which is why we’re also seeing a greater push toward production in India, and Brazil for the iPhone 16e. By spreading out where its devices are made, Apple is trying to protect itself from future disruptions.